Jordan Ogren

June 8, 2022

I have bad news...

You’re not the exception.

Sure, you could be. But betting on being the 1 in 1,000,000 is silly. Creating expectations based on being an anomaly is a recipe for defeat.

Instead, do your research and understand where most values land (one standard deviation from the mean). This can give you more clarity on where you’re likely to land. 

Let’s bring this to earth with a simple notional example:

Example:
You want to lose weight. So you make your goal to lose 150 pounds in 6 months.

You struggle to reach that goal and accept that you will be overweight forever. 

Here’s what I would propose instead:
  • Do 1-2 hours of research online to find the average weight loss for people that look like you
  • Once you have the mean, you can set a more accurate goal that is achievable and pushes you
  • Maybe the new goal is only 15 pounds in 6 months
  • But after achieving that goal, because it’s not an exception, you will have the momentum to lose 30 pounds to end the year

The reason I am making this post is because of how much I see these types of goals.

Many times, whether it’s for how well you want your content to do or how much revenue your startup should generate, we believe we’re the exception.

We set goals that only 0.15% of people or companies achieve.

The fallout from not attaining these unrealistic goals is too heavy to document here.

It makes people feel a lack of self-confidence.
It holds people and companies back from long, sustained growth.

The lesson:

DO realize that you are unlikely an exception. 

There is a high chance you will fall within one standard deviation of the mean. And then set your goals from this understanding. If your sales process is an anomaly, then you’ll fly past your goals. That’s great! 

DON’T set goals based on an unrealistic present and future.

By believing we’re an exception, we will set lofty goals that do more harm than inspiring for our teams. And there’s a 99.7% chance we will be let down.

I’m not saying settle for average.
I’m just saying that we should have more realistic goals and expectations.

Am I onto something here, or am I way off?

🧠 + ❤️ // JO